UNDP Iran

The problem: 

In 2022/2023, Iran was (and still is) experiencing an escalation of risks across multiple fronts—social, economic, and geopolitical. UNDP Iran sought to understand how different scenarios might evolve over a 2-year timeline, and how to best implement their country strategy, noting the very complex space the UN operated in in-country.

The outcome: 

• Demonstrate leadership across donors and diplomatic missions in terms of anticipatory planning. 

• Prepare in advance for how to implement its country strategy CPD taking into account the dynamic context it was operating in.

Our approach: 

A blended desk-based, in-country risk research and scenarios process, undertaken over a period of 6 months. The baseline desk analysis analyzed the intersections and potential implications of multiple streams of issues to pull out its complexity. 

From this, four scenarios were extrapolated to show the evolution of various scenarios over a 2-year timeline, which included its connected indicators, tipping points, and potential impacts.